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DYNAMIC STOCHASTIC MODELLING OF COVID-19 AMONGST DISPLACED POPULATIONS IN IRAQ

Shatha Kareem Mohammed Department of Accounting/ Imam Ja'afar Al-Sadiq University/Iraq
Zaid Hilal Abed Alqiraishi College of education/ The Islamic university in Najaf, Iraq
Nour Rahim Nimah Department of education/ Al-Manara College For Medical Sciences/ (Maysan)/ Iraq
Heba muhammad Hussein Department of Accounting, Al-Zahrawi University College, Karbala, Iraq
Jasim Ahmede Jasim Department of accounting,/ AL-Nisour University College/ Baghdad/ Iraq
Adil Abbas Alwan College of Technical Engineering, National University of Science and Technology, Dhi Qar, 64001, Iraq
Abdulhussein Abdalameer Department of Accounting, Al-Esraa University/Baghdad, Iraq
Ali Muhsun Ajil Department of Accounting, Mazaya university college/ Iraq
Saeb jasim al-shuwaili Al-Hadi University College, Baghdad,10011, Iraq

Abstract

The prevalence of covid-19 also rapidly increased among displaced populations in Iraq, emphasizing the identification of important solutions in this regard. Therefore, this paper, spreading of covid-19 was modelled, using stochasticity within the “susceptible-infected recovered” (SIR) model, incorporating deterministic differential equation. The Itô's formula was used for expressing “stochastic SIR dynamics.” It has been proved from this study, that stochastic SIR has an effective global significant solution I(t). This study aims to explore the spreading of covid-19 among displaced population in Iraq from period of 13-08-2020 to 13-09-2020. The results obtained show that stochastic noise introduction within the deterministic model for spreading of covid-19 prevent the cause of associated disease. Computer simulation was also used for illustrating the results. This study has also been effective in providing important practical as well as theoretical implications.

Keywords

Stochastic Modelling, Displaced Population, Covid-19, SIR Model, Computer Simulation,